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SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2025 Feb 02 1242 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
02 Feb 2025	190	017
03 Feb 2025	192	019
04 Feb 2025	196	016

太陽活動區和耀斑

A total of 7 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with 2 M-class flares identified. The largest flare was an M3.0 flare (SIDC Flare 3447) peaking on February 02 at 10:12 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 391 (NOAA Active Region 3981). The second largest was a M2.4 flare (SIDC Flare 3441) peaking on February 01 at 13:19 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 368 (NOAA Active Regions 3953, 3977). The active regions SIDC Sunspot Group 388 and SIDC Sunspot Group 368 produced most of the flaring activity in the last 24 hours. SIDC Sunspot Group 388 (NOAA Active Region 3976) is the largest and most magnetic complex region on disk, with a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration. SIDC Sunspot Group 360 (NOAA Active Region 3978) and SIDC Sunspot Group 368 (NOAA Active Region 3977) both have a Beta-Gamma magnetic configuration. Solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and a small chance for X-class flares.

日冕物質拋射

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CMEs) have been detected in the available coronagraph images. A faint northeast directed CME observed at 11:24 UTC on February 1 in LASCO-C2 data is determined to be back sided and will not impact the Earth.

太陽風

In the past 24 hours solar wind conditions at Earth were still disturbed, due to a high-speed stream (HSS) that arrived on 31 January. The total interplanetary magnetic started this past 24-hour period around 14 nT and then gradually started to decrease around 20:00 UTC on February 01 to around 6 nT The Bz component reaching a minimum of -12 nT. The solar wind speed ranged from 580 km/s to 736 km/s. The phi-angle was mainly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun) with periods in the negative sector. The solar wind conditions are expected to remain disturbed in the next 24 hours due to the ongoing influence of the HSS and the expected arrival of a CME that left the Sun on January 30.

地磁

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours globally active conditions (Kp 4) and reached minor storm conditions locally (K BEL 5). Active conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

質子通量水平

Over the past 24 hours, the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at background levels and is expected to remain so over the next days.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 and GOES-18 satellites remained below the threshold level in the last 24 hours. The electron flux is expected to remain below the threshold in the coming 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence is presently at normal level, and it is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：170，基於11個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 01 Feb 2025

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	188
AK Chambon La Forêt	043
AK Wingst	029
估計地磁Ap指數	033
估計國際太陽黑子數	145 - 基於16個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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