查看星期三, 5 2月 2025歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2025 Feb 05 1231 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
05 Feb 2025	210	005
06 Feb 2025	212	013
07 Feb 2025	214	021

太陽活動區和耀斑

Solar flaring activity was at moderate levels, with 3 M-class flares and multiple C-class flares recorded over the past 24 hours. The largest flare was an M3.2 flare (SIDC Flare 3496) peaking at 13:13 UTC on February 04, associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 368 (NOAA Active Region 3977). There are currently nine numbered active regions visible on the solar disk. SIDC Sunspot Group 391 (NOAA Active Region 3981; beta-gamma-delta), that is largest and magnetically most complex active region on the disk was the main driver of the flaring activity observed over the past 24 hours together with SIDC Sunspot Group 368 (NOAA Active Region 3977, beta-gamma). Low flaring activity was also produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 388 (NOAA Active Region 3976; beta-gamma). Solar flaring activity is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and a chance for X-class flares.

日冕物質拋射

A filament eruption was observed near S29W48 at around 23:45 UTC on February 04. An associated coronal mass ejection (CME) was seen in SOHO/LASCO-C2 imagery from around 02:12 UTC, directed primarily to the southwest from Earth's perspective. Preliminary analysis suggests that the bulk of the ejecta is expected to miss Earth, but further analysis is ongoing.

太陽風

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were indicative of a slow solar wind regime. The interplanetary magnetic field was below 6 nT, the solar wind speed ranged between 380 km/s and 420 km/s. The southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field fluctuated between -6 nT and 6 nT. The magnetic field orientation was predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). Slow solar wind conditions are expected over the next days, although minor enhancements in the solar wind speed and magnetic field may be possible on February 06 - 07 due to possible arrival of a CME that left the Sun on February 02.

地磁

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet both globally and locally over Belgium (NOAA Kp: 1-2; K-Bel: 1-2). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain mostly quiet, with a chance of reaching active or minor storm conditions on February 06 - 07, due to possible CME arrival.

質子通量水平

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and it is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at these levels.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by the GOES-16 satellite, remained below the 1000 pfu alert threshold, and it is expected to remain below the threshold during the next 24 hours. The 24h electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to remain at these levels.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：163，基於13個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 04 Feb 2025

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	209
10厘米太陽通量	212
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	004
估計地磁Ap指數	003
估計國際太陽黑子數	165 - 基於18個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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