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SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2025 Mar 02 1302 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
02 Mar 2025	146	007
03 Mar 2025	148	005
04 Mar 2025	150	006

太陽活動區和耀斑

The solar flaring activity was at low levels over the past 24 hours with only C-class flaring. A total of 12 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. The flaring activity was dominated by a new region, SIDC Sunspot Group 424 (magnetic type beta), which emerged in the south-east quadrant, currently located at S18E52. It has produced a C9.5 flare (SIDC Flare 3737) peaking at 23:01 UTC on Mar 01. Two other regions have emerged near the east limb, namely SIDC Sunspot Group 422 (magnetic type alpha) and SIDC Sunspot Group 423 (magnetic type beta). The latter one has exhibited significant growth, but has not produced any significant flaring activity. SIDC Sunspot Group 420 (NOAA Active Region 4009) and SIDC Sunspot Group 368 (NOAA Active Region 4006) remain the largest regions on the visible solar disc, but have been mostly quiet. They are both classified as magnetic type beta. The remaining regions are either simple and/or have been mostly quiet. The solar flaring activity is expected to be at low levels over the next 24 hours with 30% chances for M-class flares.

日冕物質拋射

A long filament in the south-east quadrant was erupting in the UTC afternoon of Mar 01. A possibly related south-east coronal mass ejection (CME) is visible in the LASCO/C2 coronagraph data around 18:12 UTC on Mar 01. The CME is estimated to have a projected velocity below 500 km/s. Current analysis suggests only a small glancing blow arrival on Mar 05. No other Earth-directed CMEs have been detected in the available coronagraph imagery.

太陽風

Over the past 24 hours the solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) were under the waning influence of a previously ongoing high speed stream arrival. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field, B, decreased to nominal levels with a maximum value of 5.9 nT and a minimum Bz of -3.6 nT. The solar wind speed has decreased from above 700 km/s towards 500 km/s. The B field phi angle remained predominantly in the positive sector (directed away from the Sun). The solar wind conditions are expected to return towards background slow solar wind levels over the next 24 hours.

地磁

The geomagnetic conditions over the past 24 hours were quiet to active. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected for the next 24 hours. Mostly quiet conditions are expected for Mar 03 and Mar 04. An increase to active conditions with small chances of reaching minor geomagnetic storm levels might be expected on Mar 05 with any possible glancing blow ICME arrival.

質子通量水平

Over the past 24 hours the greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was at nominal levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 10 MeV GOES 16 electron flux has remained below the 1000 pfu threshold over the last 24 hours, while the greater than 10 MeV GOES 18 electron flux has briefly exceeded the threshold. The greater than 10 MeV GOES 16 and GOES 18 electron fluxed are expected to exceed the 1000 pfu threshold in the next 24 hours and over the next days. The 24-hour electron fluence was at nominal levels. It is expected to remain so in the next 24 hours and increase towards moderate levels thereafter.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：157，基於17個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 01 Mar 2025

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	145
AK Chambon La Forêt	024
AK Wingst	016
估計地磁Ap指數	045
估計國際太陽黑子數	108 - 基於08個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

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