查看星期二, 15 7月 2025歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2025 Jul 15 1231 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

地磁

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
15 Jul 2025	129	017
16 Jul 2025	135	035
17 Jul 2025	137	034

太陽活動區和耀斑

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. SIDC Sunspot Group 555 (NOAA Active Region [AR] 4141, Beta magnetic configuration) and SIDC Sunspot Group 548 (NOAA AR 4137, Beta magnetic configuration) produced almost all the C-class flaring activity. The largest flare (SIDC Flare 4891, peaking on July 14 at 17:06 UTC), is associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 555. Further C-class activity is expected in the next 24 hours, with a chance of isolated M-class flare(s).

日冕物質拋射

No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours. A CME seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images from 15 Jul 08:36 UTC onwards is associated with a large filament eruption and the early estimation is that it is not directed towards Earth. When further data become available a more detail investigation will be carried out. A partial halo CME can be seen in LASCO-C2/SOHO images and was detected by CACTus as launched on 14 Jul at 21:48 UTC. This event is most likely two back-sided CME in close proximity. As such they are not expected to become geo-effective.

太陽風

During the past 24 hours the Solar Wind (SW) conditions continued to be affected by the the High Speed Stream (HSS) that arrived on 11 July and is associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 104 (positive polarity). The SW speed increased rapidly to 600 km/s on 15 Jul at 06:00 UTC and fluctuates between 600 km/s and 750 km/s since. The interplanetary magnetic field (B) varied between 2 and 11 nT and its North-South component (Bz) fluctuated between -10 and 9 nT. The fast SW conditions are expected to persist in the next 24 hours.

地磁

Geomagnetic conditions registered globally minor storm levels (NOAA Kp 5- on 14 Jul at 18:00 to 21:00 UTC, Kp 5 on 15 Jul at 06:00 to 09:00 UTC, Kp 5- on 15 Jul at 09:00 to 12:00 UTC), while of the rest of the last 24 hours they were mostly at active levels. Locally the conditions were similar, with minor storm levels (K BEL 5) registering on 15 Jul from 06:00 to 09:00 UTC and unsettled to active conditions the rest of the time. Minor to moderate storm levels are expected in the next 24 hours as the HSS affecting the Earth's environment has now intensified.

質子通量水平

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the GOES-19 satellite, was at background levels over the past 24 hours and is likely to remain so in the next 24 hours. Nevertheless, there is a small chance that a proton event might occur during the next 24 hours.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux, as measured by GOES 19, fluctuated around the 1000 pfu alert threshold. It is expected to further increase in the next 24 hours and exceed the alert threshold. The 24-hour electron fluence increased during the past 24 hours but remained at normal levels. It is expected to further increase and reach moderate levels in the next 24 hours.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：174，基於21個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 14 Jul 2025

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	162
10厘米太陽通量	128
AK Chambon La Forêt	027
AK Wingst	018
估計地磁Ap指數	015
估計國際太陽黑子數	142 - 基於22個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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