查看星期五, 15 8月 2025歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2025 Aug 15 1231 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
15 Aug 2025	130	007
16 Aug 2025	130	007
17 Aug 2025	130	007

太陽活動區和耀斑

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares identified. A total of 13 numbered sunspot groups were observed on the solar disk. Several of the SIDC Sunspot Groups have Alpha magnetic configurations and did not produce any flaring activity. The most productive region was SIDC Sunspot Group 590 (NOAA Active Region 4172), currently located at N08W64, which has a Beta magnetic configuration and was stable over the past 24 hours. This region produced the largest flare, a C6.8 flare (SIDC Flare 5151), peaking on August 15 at 10:37 UTC. Solar flaring activity is expected to remain low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and a small chance for M-class flares

日冕物質拋射

No Earth-directed coronal mass ejections (CMEs) were observed over the past 24 hours. Only a very small number of minor CMEs were detected, none of which are expected to impact Earth.

日冕洞

SIDC Coronal Hole 123 (equatorial, positive polarity) first reached the central meridian on August 6 and is now positioned on the western side of the Sun, having completed its transit across the central meridian. The recurring SIDC Coronal Hole 104 (polar-south, positive polarity) reached the central meridian yesterday, August 14. Additionally, SIDC Coronal Hole 116, a mid-latitude coronal hole with negative polarity, began transiting the central meridian today.

太陽風

Over the past 24 hours, solar wind conditions have returned to a slow solar wind regime. The total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) remained around 5 nT and 6 nT, while the southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) was mostly negative, reaching up to -4.7 nT. Solar wind speed remained moderate, fluctuating between 400 and 500 km/s. Slow solar wind conditions are expected to persist and gradually decrease over the next 24 hours.

地磁

Geomagnetic activity was mostly quiet to unsettled over the past 24 hours, with NOAA Kp indices ranging from 2 to 3 and the Belgian K-index similarly between 2 and 3. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to remain predominantly quiet, with occasional unsettled periods.

質子通量水平

Proton flux remained below 10 pfu over the past 24 hours. A slight enhancement cannot be fully excluded due to the number of sunspot groups on the solar disc but is considered unlikely.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold in response to high- speed streams associated with SIDC Coronal Hole 123 observed over the past days. Electron flux levels are expected to fluctuate around the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence remained at moderate levels and is expected to return to normal levels over the next 24 hours.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：145，基於18個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 14 Aug 2025

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	130
AK Chambon La Forêt	015
AK Wingst	012
估計地磁Ap指數	014
估計國際太陽黑子數	170 - 基於25個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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