查看星期五, 17 10月 2025歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2025 Oct 17 1235 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

太陽質子

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10公分通量	Ap
17 Oct 2025	160	018
18 Oct 2025	162	023
19 Oct 2025	164	021

太陽活動區和耀斑

Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours with 4 M-class flares recorded. The largest flare was an M1.5 flare (SIDC Flare 5811) peaking on October 17 at 01:28 UTC, which was produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 639 (NOAA Active Region 4246). This is the most complex on disk and was responsible for all of the M-class flaring activity. SIDC Sunspot group 621 (NOAA Active region 4248), another complex region on disk, was stable. A new region rotated over the east solar limb and was numbered SIDC Sunspot Group 672 (NOAA Active region 4256). The remaining regions on disk were mostly quiet and either stable or in decay. The solar flaring activity is expected to be moderate over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares expected and a chance for X-class flares.

日冕物質拋射

The partial halo Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) directed the west that was reported yesterday, first detected in SOHO/LASCO-C2 data from 15:00 UTC on October 15 has been further analysed and a glancing blow may be possible from late on October 18. No new Earth directed CMEs were observed.

日冕洞

SIDC Coronal Hole 126 (extended equatorial coronal hole with a negative polarity) continues to transit the central meridian since October 16.

太陽風

The solar wind conditions reflected a slow solar wind regime with a solar wind speed of around 400 km/s and maximum magnetic field strength of 5nT. From 09:00 UTC October 17 a jump in the magnetic field strength was observed with values up to 14 nT. This is likely the influence of a glancing glow from one of the CMEs from October 13. During this time, the solar wind speed remain around 400 km/s. Over the next 24 hours the solar wind conditions are expected to continue to be slightly perturbed due to the passing of the current weak magnetic field structure and another possible glancing blow CME arrival on October 18 from the partial halo CME observed on October 15.

地磁

Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels globally and locally (Kp 1-3, K Bel 1-3). Unsettled to active conditions are expected on October 17, with periods of minor storm conditions (Kp 5) possible on October 18 in response to the possible CME arrival.

質子通量水平

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below this threshold level over the next 24 hours. There is a small chance of an increase related to any high-level flaring, particularly from SIDC Sunspot Group 639 (NOAA Active Region 4246).

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 exceeded the 1000 pfu threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to again exceed the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to be at moderate levels over the next 24 hours.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：119，基於08個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 16 Oct 2025

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	161
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	004
估計地磁Ap指數	003
估計國際太陽黑子數	133 - 基於18個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

所有時間均採用 UTC 時間

<< 回到每日概觀