發布時間: 2025 Oct 28 1231 UTC
C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)
Quiet
| 10公分通量 | Ap | |
|---|---|---|
| 28 Oct 2025 | 121 | 034 |
| 29 Oct 2025 | 121 | 067 |
| 30 Oct 2025 | 121 | 017 |
Solar flaring activity was very low over the past 24 hours. The X-ray flux was below C level. A total of 7 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. All the sunspot group have simple (alpha or beta) magentic field configuration. Solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares likely.
There were two wide CME on 27 October, erupting towards the north. The first one at 08:12 UT and the second one at 13:21 UT, both CMEs are backsided and will not arrive to the Earth.
SIDC Coronal Hole 123 (mid-latitude coronal hole with a positive polarity) crossed the central meridian on October 25.
Over the past 24 hours, solar wind parameters (ACE and DSCOVR) reflected a slow solar wind regime. Around 15:00 UT on 26 October we observed weak signatures of what could be the expected glancing blow from the CME on 23 October (SIDC CME 586), with the interplanetary magnetic field increasing to 11 nT. The speed has risen now to 430 km/s and the magnetic field is at 9 nT. In the next 24 hours, we expect the arrival of a high-speed stream from a large positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 123).
Geomagnetic conditions were mostly unsettled, reaching active levels locally (NOAA Kp: up to 3; K-Bel: up to 4). In the next 24 hours, the expected high-speed stream arrival from a large recurrent positive polarity coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 123) may cause moderate storm levels.
The greater than 10 MeV GOES proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours and is expected to remain so for the next 24 hours.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 was below the 1000 pfu threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain below the 1000 pfu threshold over the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at normal levels and is expected to be at normal levels over the next 24 hours.
今日估計的國際太陽黑子數(ISN):106,基於11個觀測站。
| 卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數 | 087 |
| 10厘米太陽通量 | 121 |
| AK Chambon La Forêt | 017 |
| AK Wingst | 008 |
| 估計地磁Ap指數 | 007 |
| 估計國際太陽黑子數 | 096 - 基於23個觀測站 |
| 日 | 開始 | 最大值 | 結束 | 位置 | 強度 | OP | 10cm | 卡塔尼亞天體物理觀測站/美國國家海洋暨大氣管理局 | 電波爆發類型 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 無 | ||||||||||
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