查看星期一, 2 2月 2026歷史檔案

SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2026 Feb 02 1231 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

地磁

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
02 Feb 2026	162	007
03 Feb 2026	164	007
04 Feb 2026	166	035

太陽活動區和耀斑

A total of 8 numbered sunspot groups were identified on the disk over the past 24 hours. Solar flaring activity was very high over the past 24 hours, with 5 X-class flares and 16 M-class flares identified. They originated from SIDC Sunspot Group 784 (NOAA Active Region 4366), currently located at N13E34. It has a Beta-Gamma-Delta magnetic configuration and was growing over the past 24 hours. The first X-class flare was an X1.0 one (SIDC Flare 6796) peaking on February 01 at 12:33 UTC. The second one and largest, was an X8.1 one (SIDC Flare 6808), peaked on February 01 at 23:57 UTC, two more followed shortly after (X1.5 at 00:22 UTC and X2.8 at 00:36 UTC, February 2). The last X-class flare occurred at 08:14 UTC on February 2, with a peak at X1.6. Solar flaring activity is expected to be high over the next 24 hours, with M-class flares very likely and more X-class flares possible.

日冕物質拋射

A partial halo CME was observed at 00:48 UTC on February 2 by LASCO C2, directed to the northeast, associated with the X8.1 flare peaking at 23:57 UTC on February 1, and a large EUV wave. The CME has an angular width of about 150 degrees, with an Earth directed component. A preliminary speed derived from the available data is around 700 km/s, giving an expected arrival time on the second half of February 4 (this will be updated when more data becomes available and EUHFORIA simulations results are obtained). There is still no coronagraph data corresponding to the last X-flare, so another associated CME cannot be discarded.

太陽風

The Earth is within a slow solar wind stream. The solar wind speed is around 300 km/s and the interplanetary magnetic field around 5 nT. Simmilar conditions are expected for the next 24 hours.

地磁

Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to unsettled in the last 24 hours (Kp up to 3 and K_BEL up to 2). Similar conditions can be expected for the next 24 hours.

質子通量水平

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained below the 10 pfu threshold int he last 24 hours.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 has been above the 1000 pfu threshold for most of the last 24 hours. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to slowly return to low levels in the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence was at moderate levels and is expected to go to normal levels over the next days.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：128，基於08個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 01 Feb 2026

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	162
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	006
估計地磁Ap指數	004
估計國際太陽黑子數	104 - 基於15個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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