發布時間: 2026 Feb 26 1231 UTC
C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Quiet
| 10公分通量 | Ap | |
|---|---|---|
| 26 Feb 2026 | 127 | 015 |
| 27 Feb 2026 | 130 | 010 |
| 28 Feb 2026 | 132 | 025 |
Solar flaring activity was moderate over the past 24 hours, with one M-class flare. The strongest flare was an M2.3 flare from the east limb (SIDC Flare 7072) peaking at 15:59 UTC on February 25. There are currently two numbered active regions on the solar disk. The most complex one is SIDC Sunspot Group 802 (NOAA Active Region 4379, magnetic type beta), which has rotated on disc from the east limb, in the southeast quadrant. The solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares likely and a small chance for M-class flares.
A coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME 607) was observed in LASCO/C2 coronagraph data starting at around 07:00 UTC on February 25. The CME is directed primarily to the north from the Earth's perspective and is most likely associated with a filament eruption observed in AIA 304 data around 06:00 UTC on February 25, near the central meridian in mid-latitude north hemisphere. While the bulk of the ejecta is expected to miss Earth, a glancing blow could be possible from February 28. No other Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery.
A mid-latitude, positive polarity coronal hole (returning SIDC Coronal Hole 151) is crossing the central meridian. An associated mild high-speed stream may arrive at Earth starting from March 1.
Over the past 24 hours, the solar wind parameters (ACE) continued to reflect the ongoing influence of the high-speed stream associated with the recurrent, negative polarity, equatorial, coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 147). Speed values ranged between 490 km/s and 600 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field values were between 2 nT and 6 nT. The Bz component varied between -5 nT and 3 nT. The interplanetary magnetic field angle was mostly in the negative sector. Solar wind conditions are expected to gradually weaken over the next 24 hours due to the waning influence of the high-speed stream.
Geomagnetic conditions globally and locally were mostly at unsettled to active levels (NOAA Kp 3 to 4, K BEL 3 to 4). Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected globally and locally over the next 24 hours.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux was below the 10 pfu threshold level over the past 24 hours. It is expected to remain below the threshold level over the next 24 hours.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux measured by GOES 18 and GOES 19 was mostly above the 1000 pfu threshold in the last 24 hours, with short intervals in which it fell below the 1000 pfu threshold. The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to remain around the 1000 pfu threshold levels in the next 24 hours. The 24-hour electron fluence is presently at moderate levels and is expected to remain so over the next 24 hours.
今日估計的國際太陽黑子數(ISN):032,基於19個觀測站。
| 卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數 | 045 |
| 10厘米太陽通量 | 125 |
| AK Chambon La Forêt | 029 |
| AK Wingst | 019 |
| 估計地磁Ap指數 | 017 |
| 估計國際太陽黑子數 | 017 - 基於24個觀測站 |
| 日 | 開始 | 最大值 | 結束 | 位置 | 強度 | OP | 10cm | 卡塔尼亞天體物理觀測站/美國國家海洋暨大氣管理局 | 電波爆發類型 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 | 1535 | 1559 | 1609 | ---- | M2.3 | --/4379 |
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| 上一個 地球磁爆 | 16/05/2026 | Kp6- (G2) |
| 無黑子天數 | |
|---|---|
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