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SIDC 太陽影響數據分析中心的每日公告

發布時間: 2026 Apr 01 1232 UTC

SIDC太陽影響數據分析中心的預報

太陽閃焰

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

地磁

Moderate (ISES: Major) magstorm expected (A>=50 or K=6)

太陽質子

Quiet

	10公分通量	Ap
01 Apr 2026	135	029
02 Apr 2026	130	017
03 Apr 2026	127	017

太陽活動區和耀斑

Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only C-class flares observed. The largest event was a C1.2 flare (SIDC Flare 7295), peaking on 01 April at 06:51 UTC, originating from SIDC Sunspot Group 838 (NOAA Active Region 4409). Multiple C-class flares were also produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 836 (NOAA Active Region 4405), which remained the most active region on the disk. A total of nine numbered sunspot groups were present on the solar disk. Most regions exhibited simple magnetic configurations and were either stable or in decay. Solar flaring activity is expected to remain low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and a chance for isolated M-class flares, mainly from SIDC Sunspot Group 836 (NOAA Active Region 4405) and SIDC Sunspot Group 838 (NOAA Active Region 4409).

日冕物質拋射

No coronal mass ejections were detected in available coronagraph imagery over the past 24 hours.

日冕洞

The SIDC Coronal Hole 149 (an equatorial coronal hole with negative polarity) that reached the central meridian on 30 March is now located on the western side of the solar disk. SIDC Coronal Hole 142, a returning mid-latitude coronal hole with negative polarity, has rotated over the east limb and is now visible on the eastern side of the solar disk.

太陽風

Solar wind parameters were at slow solar wind conditions over the past 24 hours. Solar wind speed gradually decreased from about 450 km/s to approximately 350 km/s. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) remained at low to moderate levels, with the total field (Bt) ranging between about 2 and 7 nT. The southward IMF component (Bz) component showed variable conditions, fluctuating between northward and southward orientations, with several southward excursions reaching approximately -4 nT. Over the last 30 minutes, an increase in solar wind activity has been observed, with Bt (up to around 16 nT) and Bz showing enhanced variability and solar wind speed increasing up to approximately 510 km/s. This may indicate the beginning of the onset of a solar wind disturbance associated with the anticipated interplanetary coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME 644). Solar wind conditions are expected to become further disturbed over the next 24 hours due to the anticipated arrival of the interplanetary CME (SIDC CME 644) associated with the X1.4 flare (SIDC Flare 7290), possibly combined with or followed by the high-speed solar wind stream originating from the equatorial coronal hole (SIDC Coronal Hole 149, negative polarity).

地磁

Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled over the past 24 hours, with the global NOAA Kp index reaching up to 3. The local K index (Belgium) ranged between 1 (quiet) and 3 (unsettled), with a brief interval reaching 4 (active). Geomagnetic conditions are expected to become active to storm levels over the next 24 hours due to the anticipated arrival of the interplanetary coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME 644). Moderate geomagnetic storm conditions are likely (K up to 6), with a chance of stronger activity, particularly if periods of southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) orientation (negative Bz).

質子通量水平

The greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background levels over the past 24 hours, with no proton event observed. All measured energy channels remained well below the event threshold. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to remain at background levels over the next 24 hours.

地球靜止軌道上的電子通量

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux remained at normal to moderate levels over the past 24 hours, with values generally below the high flux threshold and a decreasing trend towards the end of the period. The 24-hour fluence remained at moderate levels. Electron fluxes are expected to remain at normal to moderate levels over the next 24 hours, with a possibility of increasing to high levels in the coming days due to the anticipated arrival of a high-speed solar wind stream. The fluence is expected to remain at moderate levels.

今日估計的國際太陽黑子數（ISN）：135，基於12個觀測站。

太陽活動指數 31 Mar 2026

卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數	///
10厘米太陽通量	141
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	006
估計地磁Ap指數	006
估計國際太陽黑子數	135 - 基於28個觀測站

顯著活動摘要

由太陽影響數據分析中心提供© - SIDC - 由 SpaceWeatherLive處理

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