發布時間: 2026 May 18 1231 UTC
C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Quiet
| 10公分通量 | Ap | |
|---|---|---|
| 18 May 2026 | 106 | 006 |
| 19 May 2026 | 103 | 009 |
| 20 May 2026 | 100 | 006 |
Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with only three C-class flares identified. The brightest flare was SIDC flare 7724, a C9.7 with its peak on 17 May at 20:53 UTC. It was associated with SIDC Sunspot Group 825 (NOAA Active Region 4436, Beta magnetic configuration). The solar flaring activity is expected to be low over the next 24 hours, with C-class flares very likely and a small chance for M-class flares.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours.
The effect of the High Speed Stream (HSS) that arrived on 15 May waned during the past 24 hours and currently the Solar Wind (SW) conditions feature a slow regime. The SW speed dropped from almost 700 to 500 km/s, the interplanetary magnetic field (B) reached a maximum value of 4 nT, and its North-South component (Bz) varied from -4 to 4 nT. A glancing blow from a Coronal Mass Ejection (SIDC CME 656) is predicted to arrive in the next 24 hours, however, no significant impact is expected from it.
The geomagnetic conditions of the past 24 hours were both globally and locally at quiet levels (NOAA Kp 2 to 2+ and K BEL 1 to 2), with the exception of locally unsettled levels for a brief period of time (K BEL 3, 17 May 12:00-15:00 UTC). In the next 24 hours it is likely that they will increase to unsettled levels, as a glancing blow from SIDC CME 656 is expected to arrive at Earth.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the GOES-19 satellite, was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is likely to remain so in the next 24 hours.
During the past 24 hours the greater than 2 MeV electron flux as, measured by GOES 19, was above the 1000 pfu alert threshold with a peak value of 5900 pfu on 17 May at 20:53 UTC. It is expected to remain above the alert threshold in the next 24 hours. The electron fluence was at moderate in the past 24 hours and it is expected to remain at those levels in the next 24 hours.
今日估計的國際太陽黑子數(ISN):086,基於22個觀測站。
| 卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數 | /// |
| 10厘米太陽通量 | 104 |
| AK Chambon La Forêt | 014 |
| AK Wingst | 012 |
| 估計地磁Ap指數 | 010 |
| 估計國際太陽黑子數 | 093 - 基於21個觀測站 |
| 日 | 開始 | 最大值 | 結束 | 位置 | 強度 | OP | 10cm | 卡塔尼亞天體物理觀測站/美國國家海洋暨大氣管理局 | 電波爆發類型 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 無 | ||||||||||
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| 無黑子天數 | |
|---|---|
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| 黑子數月平均 | |
|---|---|
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