發布時間: 2026 May 20 1231 UTC
C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
Quiet
| 10公分通量 | Ap | |
|---|---|---|
| 20 May 2026 | 107 | 007 |
| 21 May 2026 | 105 | 007 |
| 22 May 2026 | 103 | 007 |
Solar flaring activity was low over the past 24 hours, with five C-class flares identified. SIDC Sunspot Group (SG) 825 (NOAA Active Region [AR] 4436, Beta magnetic configuration) produced three of these flares. The brightest flare was SIDC flare 7734, a C2, that peaked on 19 May at 20:00 UTC. The back-sided SIDC SG 853 produced a C1 flare (SIDC flare 7738) on 20 May at 04:43 UTC. Another C1 flare (SIDC flare 7739) was emitted by SIDC SG 869 (NOAA AR 4439, Beta magnetic configuration) on 20 May at 10:09 UTC. More C-class flaring activity is expected in the next 24 hours, mostly from SIDC SG 825 and 853.
No Earth-directed Coronal Mass Ejections (CME) were observed in the last 24 hours.
SIDC Coronal Hole (CH) 164 is a southern, high-latitude, very elongated, positive polarity structure. Although It started crossing the solar central meridian in the last 24 hours, it not expected to produce a geo-effective High Speed Stream (HSS) due to its shape and position.
The glancing blow that arrived at Earth on 19 May subsided in the past 24 hours and the Solar Wind (SW) conditions have now returned to a slow SW regime. The SW speed dropped from 640 to 460 km/s, the interplanetary magnetic field (B) ranged between 3 and 8 nT, and its North- South component (Bz) varied from -7 to 5 nT. The SW conditions are expected to remain at the current levels in the next 24 hours.
The geomagnetic conditions of the past 24 hours reach active levels both globally and locally (NOAA Kp 4 on 19 May from 12:00 to 18:00 UTC and K BEL 4 on 19 May at 15:00-18:00 UTC). The remaining time both global and local levels ranged between unsettle and quiet conditions (NOAA Kp 1 to 3 and K BEL 2 to 3). In the next 24 hours it is likely that they will decrease to unsettled to quiet levels, as the effects of the glancing blow have now subsided.
The greater than 10 MeV proton flux, as measured by the GOES-19 satellite, was at nominal levels over the past 24 hours and is likely to remain so in the next 24 hours.
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux as, measured by GOES 19, was around the 1000 pfu alert threshold for past 24 hours. It reached a peak value of 2900 pfu on 20 May at 04:50 UTC. It is expected to marginally drop in the next 24 hours and possibly stay below the alert threshold. The electron fluence was at moderate levels in the past 24 hours and it is expected to drop to normal levels at some point in the next 24 hours.
今日估計的國際太陽黑子數(ISN):077,基於14個觀測站。
| 卡塔尼亞沃爾夫數 | /// |
| 10厘米太陽通量 | 106 |
| AK Chambon La Forêt | 028 |
| AK Wingst | 018 |
| 估計地磁Ap指數 | 019 |
| 估計國際太陽黑子數 | 075 - 基於25個觀測站 |
| 日 | 開始 | 最大值 | 結束 | 位置 | 強度 | OP | 10cm | 卡塔尼亞天體物理觀測站/美國國家海洋暨大氣管理局 | 電波爆發類型 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 無 | ||||||||||
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| 上一個 地球磁爆 | 16/05/2026 | Kp6- (G2) |
| 無黑子天數 | |
|---|---|
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| 2026 | 3天 (2%) |
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| 黑子數月平均 | |
|---|---|
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| 過去 30 天內 | 97.9 +5 |