Předpověď počasí ve vesmíru - diskuse

Vydáno: 2025 Dec 14 0030 UTC
Připraveno americkým ministerstvem obchodu, NOAA, střediskem pro předpověď vesmírného počasí a zpracováno na SpaceWeatherLive.com

Sluneční aktivita

24 h Shrnutí

Solar activity remained at low levels with C-class flare activity observed. The largest flare of the period was a C8.7 at 13/1051 UTC that originated from the vicinity of Region 4296 (S16W95, Eho/beta-gamma) over the SW limb. Associated with the event was a Type-II radio sweep (est 778 km/s). Slight growth was noted in Region 4308 (N07E45, Cro/beta), while the remaining regions were either stable or in decay. No Earth-directed CMEs were detected in available imagery.

Předpověď

There is a chance for M-class flares (R1-R2/Minor-Moderate) activity over 14-16 Dec.

Energetické částice

24 h Shrnutí

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux reached moderate levels and the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained steady at background levels during the period.

Předpověď

The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to reach moderate levels on 14 Dec, with high levels likely on 15-16 Dec. The greater than 10 MeV proton flux is expected to persist at background levels through 16 Dec.

Solární bouře

24 h Shrnutí

Solar wind parameters suggested the effects of a co-rotating interaction region (CIR) until about 13/1500 UTC followed by negative polarity CH HSS influences. Total magnetic field strength (Bt) decreased from 17 nT to around 5 nT once the -CH/HSS became dominant in the near-Earth environment. The north-south component of the IMF remained mostly northward during the period, oscillating between +4/-5 nT after 13/1500 UTC. Wind speeds reached 650 km/s near 13/1800 UTC and remained around that level after. Phi angle was predominately negative throughout the period.

Předpověď

Enhanced solar wind conditions, related to the negative polarity CH HSS influences, are expected to persist over 14-15 Dec, before waning on 16 Dec.

Geoprostor

24 h Shrnutí

Geomagnetic field activity reached G1 (Minor) storm levels due to CIR effects followed by the onset of negative polarity CH HSS influences at the first synoptic period of the day. They remained quiet to unsettled through the rest of the period.

Předpověď

The geomagnetic field is expected to reach active levels through 14 Dec, due to negative polarity CH HSS influences. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to prevail on 15-16 Dec as CH HSS influences subside and wane.