Solar activity has been moderate. There were three M-class events observed during the past 24 hours. The first of these was an M3/2n from Region 9636 (N14E13) at 0830 UTC, which was associated with type II and type IV sweeps and a partial halo CME that appeared to be centered over the east limb. The second was an M2/1n from Region 9628 (S18W48) at 1014 UTC which was associated with a CME that was centered over the southwest limb. The 3rd was an M1/1f from Region 9637 (S15E18) at 1926 UTC. Regions 9628 and 9632 (S18W33) continue to dominate the disk in sunspot area and still maintain magnetic delta configurations. 9628 is showing some growth in the northern portion of the region. Region 9632 has been remarkably quiet, but continues to show a strong delta along an East-West inversion line. Region 9636 seems to be decaying slightly, but has a fairly complicated magnetic structure (gamma magnetic class).

Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high. Regions 9636, 9637, 9632 and 9628 all are capable of producing additional M-class level activity. Regions 9628 and 9632 have a fair chance for producing an isolated major flare event sometime during the next three days.

The geomagnetic field was quiet to unsettled during the past 24 hours. The greater than 10 MeV proton event that began at 24/1215 UTC continues in progress as the flux levels declined slowly. The flux level at forecast issue time was 94 pfu. The greater than 2 MeV electrons attained high levels during the past 24 hours.

The geomagnetic field is expected to be unsettled to slightly active during the next 48 hours. The influence of a favorably positioned coronal hole is expected to increase activity levels slightly. In addition, there is a possibility for some active conditions on the third day as the result of a glancing blow from either of today's CME events. The greater than 10 MeV proton event is expected to end sometime in the next 24-36 hours.

  Beobachtet       28 Sep 266
  Vorhergesagt   29 Sep-01 Oct  260/260/255
  90 Tage Mittel        28 Sep 174

  Beobachtet Afr/Ap 27 Sep  009/010
  Geschätzt     Afr/Ap 28 Sep  013/015
  Vorhergesagt    Afr/Ap 29 Sep-01 Oct  015/015-015/018-020/018