Archiv von Freitag, 11 Januar 2013 anzeigen

Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2013 Jan 11 1210 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)

Geomagnetismus

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
11 Jan 2013	174	001
12 Jan 2013	179	001
13 Jan 2013	184	001

Bulletin

The main driver of solar activity is likely to be NOAA AR 1654, which has produced several C flares in the past 24 hours, and a M1.2 flare, today, at 0911 UT (peak time). A metric type II burst was observed, and a CME was probably associated to it. At the time this message is prepared, coronagraphic observations do not allow to see if a CME has indeed occurred. Active conditions (M flare likely) are expected for the next 48 hours from this region, with a risk of an X class flare. Geomagnetic conditions might evolve quickly from quiet to active levels in the coming days if CMEs related to NOAA AR 1654 flares occur; which justifies issuing a warning condition.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 109, basierend auf 08 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 10 Jan 2013

Wolf-Zahl Catania	185
10cm Solarflux	174
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	002
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	002
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	101 - Basierend auf 17 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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