Archiv von Freitag, 12 April 2013 anzeigen

Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2013 Apr 12 1235 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)

Geomagnetismus

Severe geomagnetic storm expected (A>=100 or K>=7)

Sonnenprotonen

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
12 Apr 2013	140	009
13 Apr 2013	143	076
14 Apr 2013	146	022

Bulletin

Catania sunspot groups 40 and 45 (NOAA ARs 1718 and 1721) have beta-gamma configuration of the photospheric magnetic field and might produce flaring activity up to M-level. Catania sunspot group 43 (NOAA AR 1719) is growing and has developed beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. Due to this rapid increase in the number of spots and magnetic complexity, we expect further significant flaring activity (probably up to X-level) from this active region, with a possibility of another Earth-directed CME and an SEP event. The current SEP event associated with the full halo CME of April 11 is still ongoing, although the proton flux is decreasing. We expect a slight and temporary increase of the proton flux at the arrival of the interplanetary shock associated with the halo CME of April 11. The Earth is currently inside a solar wind flow with an intermediate speed (around 450 km/s) and average (around 5 nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. We therefore expect quiet geomagnetic conditions until the arrival (most probably tomorrow morning) of the interplanetary disturbance (probably a shock and a magnetic cloud) associated with the full halo CME of April 11. The occurrence of a strong geomagnetic storm (K index around 7) will be probable.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 075, basierend auf 09 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 11 Apr 2013

Wolf-Zahl Catania	120
10cm Solarflux	137
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	005
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	004
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	086 - Basierend auf 17 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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