Archiv von Sonntag, 14 April 2013 anzeigen

Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2013 Apr 14 1245 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >= 50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor geomagnetic storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition

	10cm Fluss	Ap
14 Apr 2013	123	023
15 Apr 2013	121	017
16 Apr 2013	119	004

Bulletin

NOAA ARs 1718 and 1719 (Catania numbers 40 and 43) are decaying, although maintaining their beta-gamma configuration of the photospheric magnetic field. NOAA AR 1721 (Catania number 45) decayed also and is now classified as beta active region. No flare above the C2 level occurred during the past 24 hours. We expect flaring activity on the C-level, also from the rapidly emerging NOAA AR 1723 (no Catania number yet). An isolated M-class flare is not excluded. Due to two beta-gamma active regions in the western hemisphere, we maintain the warning condition for protons, although their flux at energies above 10 MeV continues to decrease. The Earth is currently inside the post-shock solar wind flow with speed around 500 km/s and interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude around 12 nT. The north-south IMF component Bz has been almost exclusively positive after the shock arrival, so the geomagnetic conditions remained at the quiet to unsettled level. The ICME driving the shock has not arrived yet. If it arrives, a geomagnetic disturbance only up to the minor storm level (K = 5) can be expected due to low ICME speed.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 076, basierend auf 07 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 13 Apr 2013

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	125
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	007
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	006
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	082 - Basierend auf 19 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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