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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2013 May 03 1209 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
03 May 2013	148	005
04 May 2013	145	011
05 May 2013	142	022

Bulletin

Solar activity was moderate during the last 24 hours, with only C class flares observed. The strongest event was a C2.8 flare, in NOAA AR 1734, at 2049 UT (peak time). NOAA AR 1731 still presents a risk for an isolated M flare in the next 48 hours, which means that active conditions are expected. AR 1734 is likely to produce C class flares, with a slight risk for an M class event. A filament eruption was observed on May 2, around 1400 UT in the vicinity of AR 1730, triggering a CME observed by LASCO C2. We do not expect any geomagnetic effect from that event. Concerning the CME of May 2, linked to a M1.1 flare, LASCO C2 observations confirmed that the event goes essentially north of the ecliptic plane. There is, however a small chance that the southern flank of the CME structure will cross the Earth early on May 6, possibly triggering unsettled to active conditions on that day. For the next 24 hours, we expect quiet geomagnetic conditions to prevail, and then by the end of May 4, beginning of May 5, active conditions due to a coronal hole. Current solar wind conditions are quiet, as observed by ACE.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 068, basierend auf 16 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 02 May 2013

Wolf-Zahl Catania	123
10cm Solarflux	149
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	012
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	014
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	068 - Basierend auf 18 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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