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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2013 May 18 1303 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sonnenprotonen

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
18 May 2013	136	014
19 May 2013	135	025
20 May 2013	134	010

Bulletin

Solar activity has been low, NOAA AR 1748 produced a C6.0 flare with peak at 03:45 UT. This remains the most active region, although it is decreasing in complexity, and may lose its delta configuration soon. M-class flares can be expected, and X-class flares remain possible. Proton levels are decreasing, but are still slightly over the threshold for 10 MeV. A shock arrived to the Earth at 00:30 UT, it corresponds to the CME from May 15. It arrived later than expected, which can happen for glancing blow events. A short sheath was seen right after the shock. A solar wind speed of 450 km/s and Bz up to -15 nT caused Kp = 5, between 00:00 UT and 06:00UT, while the local Dourbes K value went up to 4. The CME from May 17 is expected to arrive around noon on May 19 and cause up to major geomagnetic storms.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 088, basierend auf 08 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 17 May 2013

Wolf-Zahl Catania	200
10cm Solarflux	136
AK Chambon La Forêt	030
AK Wingst	012
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	012
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	122 - Basierend auf 14 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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