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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2013 Jun 24 1302 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
24 Jun 2013	128	017
25 Jun 2013	128	019
26 Jun 2013	128	010

Bulletin

Solar activity has been active during the past 24 hours, featuring an M2.9 flare and two C flares, both from NOAA AR 11778. The M2.9 flare peaked at 20:56 UT on June 23, and the second C flare, peaking at 11:32 UT on June 24, was a C9.9 flare. More C flares are expected within the next 48 hours, with a high chance for an M flare from AR 11778. The 10 MeV protons were above the 10 pfu threshold from 20h UT on June 23 till 9h UT on June 24, and are slowly declining again. A large flare could however push the proton flux back above this threshold, which is why we issue a proton warning condition. The solar wind is still in a coronal hole high speed stream regime, with solar wind speeds gradually decreasing from around 600 km/s to approximately 550 km/s.The IMF ranged between 2 and 8 nT. Solar wind speeds are expected to remain high, but continue their gradual decrease on June 24, 25 and 26. Geomagnetic activity was at quiet to active levels (K Dourbes between 2 and 4; NOAA Kp between 1 and 2) during the past 24 hours. Quiet to active conditions (K Dourbes < 5) are expected for June 24 to 26.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 075, basierend auf 14 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 23 Jun 2013

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	128
AK Chambon La Forêt	023
AK Wingst	026
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	023
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	078 - Basierend auf 14 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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