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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2013 Jul 02 1200 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
02 Jul 2013	115	007
03 Jul 2013	119	007
04 Jul 2013	121	007

Bulletin

Solar activity has been low in the past 24 hours with a few C flares observed. The strongest event was a C1.8 flare, taking place in NOAA AR 1785, on July 1st, 1516UT (peak time). We expect C flares in the 48 hours to occur essentially in AR 1785, raising the flaring forecast level to eruptive. A wide filament eruption occurred on the east limb, around 1930 UT, on July 1st. It was accompanied by a CME spotted by LASCO and COR coronagraphs, but with long data gaps. With the current available information, it is difficult to assess the true extent of the event and if it poses any risk. Based solely on its location, the risk for geomagnetic effects appears to be low. A second filament eruption took place on July 2nd, around 0000UT, near the central meridian. Due the data gap in coronagraph data, it is not known currently if a halo CME is associated with this event. We expect mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions for the next 48 hours. Current conditions in the interplanetary medium as measured by ACE are also very quiet.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 076, basierend auf 15 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 01 Jul 2013

Wolf-Zahl Catania	081
10cm Solarflux	108
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	010
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	009
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	048 - Basierend auf 19 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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