Archiv von Montag, 12 August 2013 anzeigen

Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2013 Aug 12 1221 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
12 Aug 2013	114	008
13 Aug 2013	118	007
14 Aug 2013	120	007

Bulletin

NOAA AR 1817 is expected to be the main player in the coming 48 hours with risks of M class flares. It evolved rather quickly in the past 24 hours, and it is now a complex and elongated sunspot group. The central part shows a wide penumbra making the link between two opposite polarity sunspots. Strong C flares occurred in this region on August 11 (C6.7 at 2131UT and C8.4 at 2158 UT peak time). A M1.5 flare occurred in this region on August 12, 1041 UT peak time. Indirect signatures of CMEs were observed, on disk, with EUV imagers, but data gaps in coronagraphic data during these flares, do not allow to confirm this. We expect active flaring conditions in the next 48 hours. C flares are possible for NOAA AR 1818. We foresee mostly quiet conditions in terms of geomagnetic activity for the next 48 hours. Current interplanetary conditions, as measured by ACE are quiet.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 057, basierend auf 13 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 11 Aug 2013

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	110
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	006
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	006
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	054 - Basierend auf 20 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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