Archiv von Sonntag, 18 August 2013 anzeigen

Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2013 Aug 18 1225 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
18 Aug 2013	123	007
19 Aug 2013	120	007
20 Aug 2013	120	012

Bulletin

NOAA AR 1818 produced a complex eruptive event on August 17, resulting in two M flares within one hour: a M3.3 peaking at 1824 UT and a M1.4 peaking at 1933 UT. This complex event was associated with a fast CME (~1000 km/s as seen from COR2 A). The bulk of the CME appears to go essentially westwards, with respect to the Earth, but we might cross the eastern flank of this CME on the second half of August 20. The 10 MeV proton flux rose slightly but didn't reach the event threshold. Flaring activity is expected to remain at eruptive levels for the next 48 hours, with C class flares likely from NOAA ARs 1818 and 1824, and a slight risk of an isolated M class flare from AR 1818. We expect essentially quiet geomagnetic conditions for the next 48 hours. There is a small chance of periods of enhanced activity (unsettled to active) on the second half of August 20, due to the CME of August 17.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 074, basierend auf 10 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 17 Aug 2013

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	125
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	008
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	008
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	071 - Basierend auf 18 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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