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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2013 Oct 23 1329 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
23 Oct 2013	146	008
24 Oct 2013	146	013
25 Oct 2013	141	013

Bulletin

There were two M flares and seven C flares on the Sun during the past 24 hours. The brightest one was an M4.2 flare released by beta-gamma-delta region NOAA AR 11875 with peak time at 21:20 UT on October 22, and caused a Type II radio burst with estimated shock speed of 1955 km/s. All flares except a low C flare (from NOAA AR 11877) were produced by AR 11875. More M flares are likely from AR 11875 within the next 48 hours, with a slight chance for an X flare. In the past 24 hours, solar wind speed further increased from about 300 km/s to a maximum of about 400 km/s around 19h UT on October 22. It has since fluctuated between 340 and 400 km/s. In the same period, the Interplanetary Magnetic Field has varied between 4 and 9 nT, with current values around 5 nT. These variations are consistent with the influence of a weak coronal hole high speed stream. Solar wind speed is expected to return to nominal values on October 24. LASCO C2 observed a CME associated with a filament eruption at 4:36 UT on October 22, which has a slight chance of producing a glancing blow in the second half of October 24. Geomagnetic activity was at quiet levels (K Dourbes between 0 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and 2) during the past 24 hours. Quiet conditions (K Dourbes < 4) are expected for October 23 and the first half of October 24. Active conditions are possible in the second half of October 24 and on October 25, due to a possible glancing blow from the CME from October 22.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 098, basierend auf 12 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 22 Oct 2013

Wolf-Zahl Catania	119
10cm Solarflux	146
AK Chambon La Forêt	012
AK Wingst	005
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	005
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	087 - Basierend auf 23 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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