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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2013 Dec 18 1234 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
18 Dec 2013	160	003
19 Dec 2013	160	006
20 Dec 2013	160	013

Bulletin

The strongest solar flare reported during the past 24 hours was a C4.0 flare (peaked at 23:29 UTC, on December 17). The flare seems to originate from Catania sunspot region 91 (no NOAA number yet) located on the east solar limb. New Catania sunspot group 87 (NOAA AR 1928) shows some activity at the same moment. NOAA AR 1928 is growing and currently also has the beta-gamma magnetic configuration of its photospheric field (just like sunspot region 80 or NOAA AR 1917). The probability for C-flares is around 80%, M-flares around 30%, with Catania sunspot regions 80, 87 and 91 as main source candidates. The chances for an X-flare are low. No Earth- directed CMEs were observed. Solar wind conditions are stable with a solar wind speed of 400 km/s and a magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field of 5 nT (observed by ACE). Geomagnetic conditions are quiet (K<3). A glancing blow of the CME of December 16 might lead to unsettled or at most active conditions at the end of December 19 (UTC time).

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 097, basierend auf 08 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 17 Dec 2013

Wolf-Zahl Catania	150
10cm Solarflux	159
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	005
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	004
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	091 - Basierend auf 14 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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