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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2013 Dec 20 1225 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
20 Dec 2013	155	008
21 Dec 2013	155	007
22 Dec 2013	160	007

Bulletin

Six C-flares and two M-flares were observed during the past 24 hours. The strongest flare was a M3.5 event taking place at the east limb, from a region that currently is rotating to the front side of the solar disk. There were no Earth-directed CME observed. The probability for C-flares remains high, around 80%, from NOAA ARs 1917, 1920, 1928, 1930 and a new region at about 40 degrees west of the central meridian. There is a substantial chance (around 60%) for more M-flares, especially from the unnumbered region currently at the east limb. An X-flare is possible but unlikely. The proton flux for >10MeV protons, measured by GOES, currently remains well below threshold levels. We are currently in a slow solar wind stream with a solar wind speed of 350 km/s and a magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field of 5 nT (observed by ACE). Current geomagnetic conditions are quiet to unsettled (Kp<4) and are expected to remain so during the next 48 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 097, basierend auf 15 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 19 Dec 2013

Wolf-Zahl Catania	154
10cm Solarflux	153
AK Chambon La Forêt	013
AK Wingst	006
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	005
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	096 - Basierend auf 15 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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