Archiv von Donnerstag, 26 Dezember 2013 anzeigen

Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2013 Dec 26 1348 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
26 Dec 2013	125	008
27 Dec 2013	128	013
28 Dec 2013	128	004

Bulletin

There were six C flares on the Sun during the past 24 hours, released by NOAA AR 11928, 11936, 11934, and 11931. The brightest one was a C2.2 flare from AR 11931 peaking at 07:02 UT on December 26. In the next 48 hours, the probability for C flares is high (around 80%) and for M flares around 30%. The > 10 MeV proton flux as observed by GOES13 started rising around 9h UT on December 26, right after the long duration C1.3 flare produced by AR 11936. It is currently still rising, but it is not expected to exceed the threshold level of 10 pfu. During the past 24 hours, solar wind speed as observed by ACE has varied between about 260 and 300 km/s, while the magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field has decreased from about 11 to about 3 nT. Geomagnetic activity has been quiet over the past 24 hours (NOAA Kp between 1 and 3). Due to the expected arrival of a coronal hole high speed stream, quiet to active geomagnetic conditions (K Dourbes < 5) are expected in the second half of December 26 and on December 27. Quiet geomagnetic conditions are likely on December 28.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 065, basierend auf 11 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 25 Dec 2013

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	123
AK Chambon La Forêt	009
AK Wingst	006
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	006
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	065 - Basierend auf 19 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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