Archiv von Dienstag, 31 Dezember 2013 anzeigen

Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2013 Dec 31 1140 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
31 Dec 2013	145	007
01 Jan 2014	145	020
02 Jan 2014	142	016

Bulletin

The flaring activity in the southern solar hemisphere continues at C-class level. The largest flare in the past day was a C5.6 flare originating in NOAA AR 11936 with peak time at 02:40 UT today. Afterwards, also NOAA AR 11938 produced a C2.0 flare, peaking at 05:32 UT. Both regions are expected to produce more C-flares in the coming hours. AR 11936, which has evolved to a beta-gamma-delta region, also has the potential to produce an M-class flare. We maintain the warning condition for proton events. STEREO-A/COR2 images show a CME at 07:08 UT, after a data gap. More data is needed for further analysis, but this event may originate near NOAA AR 11934, which is turning over the west limb. A possible glancing blow from this CME can occur late on January 3. STEREO-B/COR2 observed a faint CME on December 29 around 20:25 UT, possibly linked to the M-flare on that day. A glancing blow from this CME is possible on January 2. We expect minor geomagnetic storm conditions late on January 1 and early on January 2 (K_Dourbes up to 5) due to the arrival of a fast coronal hole wind stream and possible effects from the CME activity on December 29.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 091, basierend auf 11 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 30 Dec 2013

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	143
AK Chambon La Forêt	007
AK Wingst	002
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	002
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	068 - Basierend auf 17 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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