Archiv von Montag, 3 Februar 2014 anzeigen

Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2014 Feb 03 1313 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
03 Feb 2014	195	005
04 Feb 2014	200	003
05 Feb 2014	195	003

Bulletin

Catania sunspot groups 27 and 28 (NOAA ARs 1968 and 1967 respectively) continue to grow in number of sunspots and in area, keeping respectively beta-gamma and beta-gamma-delta configurations of their photospheric magnetic field. The strongest flare of the past 24 hours was the M3.1 flare peaking at 18:11 UT yesterday in the Catania sunspot group 28. We expect continuing flaring activity on the M-level, with an isolated X-class flare being probable, especially in the Catania sunspot group 28 (NOAA AR 1967). Due to the position of the sunspot group 28 close to the solar central meridian, a CME associated with a flare in this active region may arrive at the Earth. A major CME in this sunspot group may lead to a proton event, so we issue a warning condition. A filament eruption starting today at 05:44 UT to the south of the Catania sunspot group 28 (NOAA AR 1967) seems to have led only to a narrow CME. The partial halo CME first appearing in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view yesterday at 08:48 UT was a far side CME, so it will not arrive at the Earth. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 360 km/s) solar wind flow with a slightly elevated (around 6 nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. We expect quiet geomagnetic conditions.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 098, basierend auf 15 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 02 Feb 2014

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	190
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	003
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	003
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	089 - Basierend auf 19 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

Alle Zeiten in UTC

<< Zum Tagesübersicht