Archiv von Dienstag, 25 Februar 2014 anzeigen

Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2014 Feb 25 1240 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Proton event expected (10 pfu at >10 MeV)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
25 Feb 2014	171	007
26 Feb 2014	171	017
27 Feb 2014	171	007

Bulletin

A X4.9 flare peaked Feb 25 00:49. This event occurred in NOAA AR 1990 close to the Solar East limb. This active region has lived through several solar rotations under the names AR 1967, AR1944 and AR1918. Given its current proximity to the Solar East limb, we cannot estimate well its magnetic configuration and complexity. Continued strong flaring activity would nevertheless not come as a surprise. The X4.9 flare was associated with a gradual SEP event but the (still rising) fluxes did not reach the event thresholds yet. We estimate that the 10 pfu > 10 MeV threshold will eventually be crossed in the coming days, especially if another strong event occurs, and a solar proton event is thus forecasted. The X4.9 flare was also associated with a strong & fast partial halo CME. Given the location of its source on the Solar East limb, we do not expect this CME to become geoeffective but a 'glancing blow' cannot be excluded. Another important region to follow up is the activity complex consisting of NOAA1982-Cat46 and NOAA1981-Cat45. Although this complex is shrinking in size, its magnetic complexity is increasing and major flaring is expected. Also NOAA1986-Cat48 and NOAA1989-Cat50 are capable of isolated M-class flares. Quiet geomagnetic conditions are expected.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 123, basierend auf 07 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 24 Feb 2014

Wolf-Zahl Catania	164
10cm Solarflux	171
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	005
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	005
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	117 - Basierend auf 23 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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