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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2014 Feb 27 1116 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Proton event in progress (>10 MeV)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
27 Feb 2014	180	016
28 Feb 2014	180	019
01 Mar 2014	180	007

Bulletin

Given the large number of complex, active regions on the disk, solar activity has been moderate. The strongest flare was an M1.1 flare from NOAA AR 1982, now approaching the solar West limb. For the coming days, the largest chance for major flaring comes from active region NOAA1990-Cat52 and NOAA1991-Cat59. In particular NOAA1990-Cat52 (the source of the X4.9 flare of Feb 25) is now categorised as beta-delta and is slowly increasing in size. At the time of this writing, the expected shock from the CME following the X4.9 flare has not arrived yet. ACE measurement of low energy proton fluxes are rising since Feb 26 22:00, therefore suggesting the shock is near. We expect thus active geomagnetic conditions later today. They will continue into tomorrow Feb 28 as we expect the influence of the fast solar wind stream from a (small) coronal hole.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 142, basierend auf 05 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 26 Feb 2014

Wolf-Zahl Catania	226
10cm Solarflux	178
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	002
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	003
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	155 - Basierend auf 19 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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