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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2014 May 15 1251 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
15 May 2014	163	009
16 May 2014	160	009
17 May 2014	158	006

Bulletin

The strongest flare in the past 24 hours was C8.3 flare peaking at 15:04 UT on May 14.The flare originated from the Catania sunspot group 43 (NOAA AR 2056) which currently has beta-gamma configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. No clear signatures of CME possibly associated with this flare were observed in the coronagraph data. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during last 24 hours. We expect C-class flares and possibly also an isolated M-class flares. The flaring activity is expected, in particular, from the Catania sunspot groups 43, 46, 47 (NOAA ARs 2056, 2058 and 2060, respectively) and newly emerged NOAA AR 2063. All these active regions (with an exception of NOAA AR 2063) are currently situated in the western solar hemisphere, a major eruption in one of them may lead to a proton event, so we issue warning condition for a proton event. The solar wind speed is low (about 350 km/s), and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is stable having value of about 6 nT. The fast flow associated with the small equatorial corona hole which reached the central meridian on May 12 is expected to arrive at the Earth today, although its arrival is not very probable. We expect quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 105, basierend auf 16 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 14 May 2014

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	163
AK Chambon La Forêt	010
AK Wingst	005
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	005
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	114 - Basierend auf 22 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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