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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2014 Aug 27 1235 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
27 Aug 2014	125	013
28 Aug 2014	123	010
29 Aug 2014	120	008

Bulletin

Solar activity has decreased in the past 24 hours. Only a few C-class flares were observed, with NOAA ARs 2146, 2149 and 2151 as source regions. The largest flare was a C5.6 flare, peaking at 23:25 UT on August 26. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Flaring activity is expected to continue at the level of C-flares, with a slight chance for an isolated M-class flare. The risk for a proton event has reduced, but for the time being we leave the warning condition due to position of AR 2146 which still has a delta component. Solar wind observations indicate the arrival of an ICME around 0:00 UT of August 27, related to the CMEs of August 22. The magnitude of the magnetic field has smoothly increased from about 5 to 15 nT. The Bz component is southward with values up to -14 nT. Solar wind speed increased from 280 to 320 km/s, while there were only small variations in density and temperature. Geomagnetic conditions are currently unsettled (local K at Dourbes=3) to active (NOAA Kp=4), which is expect to persist for the next few hours, till quiet conditions return. The potential arrival of the August 25 CMEs might cause active conditions again from the UT afternoon of August 28 onwards.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 070, basierend auf 15 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 26 Aug 2014

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	128
AK Chambon La Forêt	008
AK Wingst	004
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	003
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	066 - Basierend auf 10 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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