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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2014 Oct 10 1235 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
10 Oct 2014	120	011
11 Oct 2014	119	008
12 Oct 2014	117	008

Bulletin

The only flare reported during last 24 hours is the C1.0 flare (peaked at 18:23 UT) on October 09. The flare originated from the Catania sunspot group 67 (NOAA AR 2182) which has currently beta-gamma configuration of its photosperic magnetic field. Like majority of flares originating from this AR the C1.0 flare seems to be a confined flare, without associated mass ejection. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed during last 24 hours. The background X-ray flux is low, currenly at B-level (about B5). We expect occasional C-class flares, while M-class flares are not very probable. After the crossing of the sector boundary in the morning of October 8, the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude remained somewhat elevated. Currently the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is about 7nT. The Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field is still fluctuating but it has been mostly positive during last five hours. The long time elevated interplanetary magnetic field indicates possible arrival of the ICME (it is not clear what is its solar origin). The solar wind speed is low and it currently amounts about 340 km/s. We expect quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions to continue in the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 024, basierend auf 15 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 09 Oct 2014

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	119
AK Chambon La Forêt	023
AK Wingst	016
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	018
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	047 - Basierend auf 20 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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