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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2014 Oct 18 1221 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
18 Oct 2014	151	014
19 Oct 2014	151	012
20 Oct 2014	151	012

Bulletin

During the past 24 hours, one M flare and six C flares were released by beta-gamma region NOAA AR 2192, the region close to the east limb that had already released three M flares this week. The long duration M1.6 flare peaked at 7:58 UT on October 18. In the next 48 hours, M flares are probable, with a chance for an X flare, especially from AR 2192. A faint halo CME was first observed by LASCO C2 at 10:00 UT on October 17. Based on the absence of corresponding events in SDO imagery, this CME is probably backward, and will probably not become geo-effective. Over the last 24 hours the solar wind speeds observed by ACE varied between about 385 and 535 km/s, with current speed values around 440 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) varied between 0.5 and 8.5 nT, with current values around 6.5 nT. Geomagnetic conditions during the last 24 hours were quiet to active (K Dourbes between 2 and 4; NOAA Kp between 1 and 4). Quiet geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) with active excursions (K Dourbes = 4) are expected on October 18, 19 and 20.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 042, basierend auf 13 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 17 Oct 2014

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	146
AK Chambon La Forêt	014
AK Wingst	008
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	008
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	045 - Basierend auf 16 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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