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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2014 Oct 20 1303 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
20 Oct 2014	178	018
21 Oct 2014	181	016
22 Oct 2014	183	016

Bulletin

Six sunspot groups are reported by Catania today. The main source of the solar flaring activity is the Catania sunspot group 88 (NOAA AR 2192) that is growing in size and complexity. Now it has beta-gamma-delta configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. After yesterday's X1.1 flare, the strongest flare was the M3.9 flare peaking at 09:11 UT today. This flare was not accompanied by a CME. We expect more flaring activity up to X-level from this sunspot group. The Earth is currently inside a solar wind flow with intermediate speeds (around 500-550 km/s). This flow might be associated with a narrow low-latitude coronal hole that passed the solar central meridian on October 17-18. The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude was elevated (up to 9 nT), and the IMF was directed predominantly southward during the last several hours. Intervals of active geomagnetic conditions (K = 4) were reported by Dourbes and NOAA. We expect quiet to active geomagnetic conditions in the coming hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 086, basierend auf 14 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 19 Oct 2014

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	173
AK Chambon La Forêt	017
AK Wingst	010
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	012
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	064 - Basierend auf 20 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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