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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2014 Oct 22 1246 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Major flares expected (X-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
22 Oct 2014	204	011
23 Oct 2014	208	011
24 Oct 2014	210	011

Bulletin

Three M-class flares were detected in the past 24 hours, all of them produced by the Catania sunspot group 88 (NOAA AR 2192). The strongest flare was the M8.7 flare peaking at 01:59 UT. Based on the still incomplete SOHO/LASCO data and the absence of conspicuous eruptive signatures in the SDO/AIA data, we conclude that there was no CME associated with this flare. We expect flaring activity mostly on the M-level in this group, with a good chance for an X-class flare. As the Catania sunspot group 88 approaches the solar central meridian, a major eruption in this active region may lead to a geoeffective CME and a proton event. The Earth is currently inside a slow (around 460 km/s) solar wind flow with average (around 5 nT) interplanetary magnetic field magnitude. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet and are expected to remain so.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 095, basierend auf 10 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 21 Oct 2014

Wolf-Zahl Catania	151
10cm Solarflux	199
AK Chambon La Forêt	028
AK Wingst	017
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	017
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	082 - Basierend auf 16 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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