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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2014 Dec 06 1401 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
06 Dec 2014	134	015
07 Dec 2014	130	010
08 Dec 2014	128	005

Bulletin

The strongest flare in last 24 hours was the M1.5 flare (peaking at 12:25 UT) on December 5. The M-class flare was one more confined flare (SOHO/LASCO observations show data gap, however the SDO/AIA data do not show any on-disc signatures of the CME) which originated from the Catania sunspot group 24 (NOAA AR 2222). No Earth directed CMEs were observed during last 24 hours. We expect C-class flares and possibly also isolated M-class flares from the Catania sunspot group 24 (NOAA AR 2222) which still maintains beta-gamma configuration of its photospheric magnetic field. Since this active region is approaching to the west solar limb (about S20 W58), eruptions and flaring activity originating from this active region might be accompanied with the particle event. We maintain the warning conditions for a proton event. The solar wind speed is currently about 480 km/s. The slow increase of the solar wind speed and density, concurrent with the strong increase of interplanetary magnetic field has started early today. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude is elevated during the last 5 hours and it amounts about 21 nT, indicating possible arrival of the ICME of still unclear solar origin. If the Bz component of the interplanetary magnetic field turns to negative values we might expect active to minor storm geomagnetic conditions.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 046, basierend auf 16 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 05 Dec 2014

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	137
AK Chambon La Forêt	016
AK Wingst	012
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	011
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	043 - Basierend auf 09 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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