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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2014 Dec 13 1241 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
13 Dec 2014	160	019
14 Dec 2014	163	013
15 Dec 2014	165	007

Bulletin

Several C-class and one M-class flares erupted since our last bulletin. Activity mostly originated from NOAA active regions 2227 (Catania 27), 2237 and a new region located at the East limb (S05). The impulsive M1.5 flare peaking at 5:20 UT, originated from the new yet unnumbered region near the East limb. More flares at the C-level is expected, with a probability of 40% for an isolated M-flare. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Solar wind speed varied between 500 and 700 km/s and the magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field was maximally around 10 nT, decreasing to 7 nT with a fluctuating Bz component. The geomagnetic index reached K=4 at Dourbes. Geomagnetic activity is expected to reach unsettled to active conditions, related to effects of the coronal hole high speed stream. Isolated time slots of minor storm conditions are also possible.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 099, basierend auf 05 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 12 Dec 2014

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	154
AK Chambon La Forêt	024
AK Wingst	018
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	019
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	084 - Basierend auf 12 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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