Archiv von Freitag, 19 Dezember 2014 anzeigen

Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2014 Dec 19 1223 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
19 Dec 2014	210	008
20 Dec 2014	210	029
21 Dec 2014	210	014

Bulletin

The Sun released two M flares and seven high C flares during the past 24 hours. Most flares were produced by NOAA AR 2242 and 2241. An M6.9 flare was released by AR 2241 and peaked at 21:58 UT on December 18. An associated Type II radio burst was observed by the Palehua station on Hawaii, with an estimated shock speed of 664 km/s. LASCO C3 shows images of a probably associated halo CME after a data gap, first observed at 00:27 UT on December 19. Based on the estimated Type II shock speed, it is estimated that this CME will arrive at Earth around 0h UT on December 22. The second M flare was an M1.3 flare released by AR 2237 around 9:44 UT on December 19. There is a chance for proton storms in the days ahead. During the past 24 hours, solar wind speeds observed by ACE were nominal between about 330 and 430 km/s. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) fluctuated between about 6 to 8 nT. During the past 24 hours, geomagnetic conditions were quiet (K Dourbes between 0 and 3; NOAA Kp between 1 and 3). Quiet geomagnetic levels (K Dourbes < 4) are expected on December 19. Active (K Dourbes = 4) to minor storm conditions (K Dourbes = 5) are possible on December 20 and 21 in view of the expected arrival of the halo CME from December 17.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 119, basierend auf 07 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 18 Dec 2014

Wolf-Zahl Catania	197
10cm Solarflux	213
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	006
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	006
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	123 - Basierend auf 12 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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