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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2014 Dec 22 1228 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
22 Dec 2014	200	026
23 Dec 2014	200	020
24 Dec 2014	200	010

Bulletin

Solar activity remains dominated by NOAA active region 2242. This beta-gamma-delta region has produced four C-class and one M-class flares in the past period. An impulsive M1.0 flare, peaking at 1:49 UT on December 22 was the strongest one. More strong flares, at the C- and M-level are expected from NOAA 2241 and especially 2242. Also X-flares are possible (chance at 25%). The > 10 MeV proton flux as observed by GOES started rising gradually after the C5.6 flare of 20:35 UT on December 20. A faster ascent is noted after the M1.0 flare of 12:17 UT on December 21. The proton flux is decreasing again, but is still at an elevated level (near 1 pfu). As the NOAA regions 2241 and 2242 are approaching the west limb, we retain the warning for a proton event, which might occur in case of more strong flares. No additional Earth-bound CMEs were observed. A shock in the solar wind was observed by both ACE and SOHO/CELIAS near 18:25 UT on December 21. The solar wind velocity went from 360 to 440 km/s instantaneously, accompanied by a sudden increase of the solar wind density and temperature. The magnitude of the Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) jumped from 9 to 17 nT and remained at these high levels till about 3:40 UT when it dropped to about 13 nT. These are strong indications for the arrival of the December 19 CME. The vertical component of the magnetic field was mainly negative and varied between -17 and 8 nT. Active geomagnetic conditions were observed at Dourbes (local K= 4), with even minor storm conditions at the global level (NOAA estimated Kp up to 5). A continuation of the active to minor storm conditions (K=4 to 5) are expected, certainly in case of the estimated arrival of the December 20 CME in the course of today.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 089, basierend auf 06 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 21 Dec 2014

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	206
AK Chambon La Forêt	033
AK Wingst	014
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	014
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	106 - Basierend auf 16 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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