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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2015 Jan 08 1243 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
08 Jan 2015	151	022
09 Jan 2015	156	019
10 Jan 2015	161	013

Bulletin

Solar activity has been low. The largest flare was a C4.2 flare peaking at 4:34 UT from Catania region 49 (NOAA 2253). Catania 50 (NOAA 2257) continued to grow but was inactive and the new spots turning into view on the southern hemisphere were numbered Catania 55 and 57 (NOAA 2259). Further C flaring is expected with still a chance for an M flare and also a possibility for a proton event should Catania region 49 (NOAA 2253) produce significant flaring. No Earth directed CME's were recorded. Solar wind conditions slowly recovered after yesterdays CME arrival. Solar wind speed was mainly in the 420-500 km/s range. Total magnetic field recovered to the 6 to 13 nT range and is presently around 9 nT. During the episode of elevated total magnetic field, Bz was pronounced negative before the start of the reporting period, evolving to pronounced positive after UT noon and becoming variable in the +/- 6nT range around 20:00UT as total magnetic field values recovered. The magnetic field phi angle became positive after the event. Geomagnetic conditions have been quiet to active in the wake of yesterdays CME. Elevated solar wind conditions are expected to continue under the anticipated influence of a returning positive polarity coronal hole. Corresponding quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected with minor storms possible.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 076, basierend auf 04 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 07 Jan 2015

Wolf-Zahl Catania	142
10cm Solarflux	147
AK Chambon La Forêt	038
AK Wingst	021
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	025
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	080 - Basierend auf 17 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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