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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2015 Mar 02 1225 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Active (M-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
02 Mar 2015	135	029
03 Mar 2015	138	021
04 Mar 2015	140	015

Bulletin

NOAA 2290, which is now near the NW solar limb, was responsible for most of the C-class flaring over the last 24 hours. It was also the source of 2 M1 flares (peaking resp. at 06:39 and 09:48UT). Proton flux levels stayed nominal. An actively flaring region is rounding the SE limb and produced two low-level C-class flares. NOAA 2292 has some mixed magnetic polarities but has remained quiet. A 300 degrees wide partial halo CME was detected by Cactus in LASCO/C2 imagery on 01 March 2015 at 12:36UT. With no obvious related signature on the Sun's earth facing side, this halo CME seems to have been a backside event. Several other CMEs have been recorded during the period, with the most prominent CMEs related to flaring activity from NOAA 2290. None of the observed CMEs has an Earth directed component. There's a good chance on continued M-class flaring from NOAA 2290 as it rotates further over the NW limb. Active (K=4 at Dourbes) to minor geomagnetic storming (Kp=5) conditions were recorded over the period as the Earth remained under the influence of the high speed stream from the southern polar CH. Solar wind speed reached maximum values near 700 km/s. IMF was directed towards the Sun, with Bz mostly negative and oscillating between -10 and +11 nT. The geomagnetic field is expected to range from unsettled to active conditions, with a chance on a minor storming episode.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 043, basierend auf 19 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 01 Mar 2015

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	128
AK Chambon La Forêt	026
AK Wingst	024
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	028
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	052 - Basierend auf 22 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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