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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2015 May 14 1230 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

Eruptive (C-class flares expected, probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
14 May 2015	153	014
15 May 2015	150	015
16 May 2015	148	015

Bulletin

The eruption of a filament near NOAA 2345 was accompanied by the strongest flaring event of the period, a C9.2 flare peaking on 13 May at 18:18UT. Coronagraphic imagery indicates that the bulk of the coronal mass ejection (CME) was directed to the north and away from Earth. However, difference imagery (CACTus) shows the faint outline of an asymmetric halo CME having a plane-of-the-sky speed of about 240 km/s. Provided this is not from a backside event, an impact from the shock is possible on 18 May, but the geomagnetic effects are expected to be limited. NOAA 2339 produced 2 low-level C-class flares near its leading sunspots, while the other regions were quiet. The other observed CMEs had no earth-directed component.

Further C-class flaring is expected, with a chance on an M-class flare.

Solar wind speed slowly undulated around 700 km/s as a result of the high speed stream (HSS) from the recurrent coronal hole. Bz-values were small and varied mostly between -6 and +4 nT. Only quiet to active geomagnetic conditions were observed.

Quiet to active geomagnetic conditions are expected to persist, with a chance on a minor storming episode.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 121, basierend auf 21 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 13 May 2015

Wolf-Zahl Catania	200
10cm Solarflux	157
AK Chambon La Forêt	037
AK Wingst	040
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	042
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	122 - Basierend auf 26 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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