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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2015 Jun 20 1230 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
20 Jun 2015	137	009
21 Jun 2015	137	035
22 Jun 2015	137	055

Bulletin

Solar flaring was moderate. The only significant event was an M1.0 flare peaking at 6:48 UT from Catania group 92 (NOAA region 2371). In addition, only some more low level C flares were observed. Catania group 92 has very complex structure and another M flare from this region is very likely. Hence flaring at M level is expected for the coming days. The second CME reported yesterday in the URSIGRAM is a partial halo CME first visible in SoHO/LASCO C2 images at 6:42 UT (with a data gap between 6:42 UT and the earlier reported time of appearance 8:25UT). As reported earlier, it is associated with the flaring of the filament channel stretching over the south-eastern quadrant which started around 5:00 UT June 19. The angular width of the CME is around 180 degrees, and it is directed predominantly southward. Measured projected speeds are around 500 km/s. With its southward direction and limited speed a possible glancing blow is expected around June 22 noon. Solar wind was at nominal levels with solar wind speed in teh 300-360 km/s range and total magnetic field around 4-5nT. Bz was variable and mostly above -2nT. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 0-1, local K Dourbes 0-3). Nominal solar wind conditions and quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions are first expected to continue until the possible arrival (glancing blow) of the June 18 CME around noon June 21 which could raise geomagnetic conditions to minor or possibly moderate storm levels. These in turn will be followed by the arrival of the June 19 CME the next day on June 22.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 046, basierend auf 10 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 19 Jun 2015

Wolf-Zahl Catania	068
10cm Solarflux	137
AK Chambon La Forêt	005
AK Wingst	005
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	004
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	054 - Basierend auf 16 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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