Archiv von Dienstag, 25 August 2015 anzeigen

Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2015 Aug 25 1230 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
25 Aug 2015	133	006
26 Aug 2015	133	007
27 Aug 2015	133	007

Bulletin

In addition to multiple C flares, NOAA AR 2403 produced another M1 flare peaking at 17:46UT. The region continues to be the only significant region on disk and maintaining its gamma-beta-delta magnetic complexity and even showing some further growth especially in the trailing section. It continues to be a likely source for M flaring over the next days with a slight chance for an X flare. Located on the Western hemisphere the potential for strong flaring from this region also poses an increased risk for a proton event. No significant Earth directed CME's were recorded in coronagraph data. Solar wind shows a further return to nominal conditions with no obvious signatures of any arrival of the 21/22 August CME's. Solar wind speed decreased further to around 380 km/s. Total magnetic field was in the 3-5.5nT range with Bz initially variable but mostly negative since midnight. Geomagnetic conditions were quiet to unsettled (NOAA Kp 1-3 and local K Dourbes 1-3) and are expected to remain quiet to unsettled until the influence of the negative polarity equatorial coronal hole, currently passing the central meridian, sets in which is expected later on August 27 or August 28.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 061, basierend auf 16 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 24 Aug 2015

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	128
AK Chambon La Forêt	011
AK Wingst	008
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	008
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	080 - Basierend auf 26 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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