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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2015 Sep 23 1230 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Quiet

	10cm Fluss	Ap
23 Sep 2015	105	009
24 Sep 2015	107	021
25 Sep 2015	104	011

Bulletin

Five sunspot groups are reported by Catania today. Four C-class flares were detected during the past 24 hours (all four this morning), the strongest one being the C2.9 flare peaking at 07:30 UT in the Catania sunspot group 31 (NOAA AR 2415) that is currently located just behind the West solar limb. We expect flaring activity on the C-level, with a small chance for an M-class flare, in particular from a newly emerged Catania sunspot group 39 (NOAA AR 2422) that already produced a C1.2 flare today. A slow partial halo CME (angular width around 160 degrees) first appearing in the SOHO/LASCO C2 field of view at 07:24 UT on September 22 is a backside event and will not arrive at the Earth. An Earth-directed CME is possible in case of an eruption of a filament in the south-east quadrant of the solar disk that is currently approaching the solar central meridian. The Earth is currently inside a solar wind flow with intermediate speed (around 500 km/s). The interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) magnitude is slightly elevated in the past several hours (up to 9 nT), but the north- south IMF component Bz is fluctuating. The geomagnetic conditions are on the quiet to unsettled levels and are expected to remain so in the coming hours. Active to minor storm geomagnetic conditions are possible tomorrow due to the arrival of the fast solar wind flow from a small equatorial coronal hole.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 089, basierend auf 10 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 22 Sep 2015

Wolf-Zahl Catania	086
10cm Solarflux	107
AK Chambon La Forêt	///
AK Wingst	011
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	011
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	077 - Basierend auf 24 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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