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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2015 Sep 30 1230 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Quiet (A<20 and K<4)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
30 Sep 2015	130	006
01 Oct 2015	120	008
02 Oct 2015	110	007

Bulletin

Solar flaring activity has slightly reduced, though there were still two M1 flares (M1.1 peaking at 19:24 UT and M1.3 at 10:58 UT) originating from NOAA active region (AR) 2422. In addition, NOAA AR 2420, 2423 and 2427 contributed to the solar activity with a few C-class flares. No significant associated CME was observed in current coronagraphic data. More (low) M-class flares are expected, mainly from NOAA AR 2422, which still has a beta-gamma-delta configuration. NOAA ARs 2427 and 2420 show flux emergence and also do have flaring potential. Due to the position of NOAA ARs 2422 and 2423, we still retain the warning level for a potential proton event. The Earth is still inside a slow (values between 320 and 360 km/s) solar wind flow and the interplanetary magnetic field magnitude remains around 5 nT. The geomagnetic conditions are quiet (K<3) to unsettled (K=3) and are mainly expected to remain so. There is a some chance for isolated time slots of active conditions (K=4).

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 091, basierend auf 24 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 29 Sep 2015

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	129
AK Chambon La Forêt	006
AK Wingst	007
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	006
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	108 - Basierend auf 24 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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