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Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2015 Oct 02 1230 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

M-class flares expected (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Active conditions expected (A>=20 or K=4)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
02 Oct 2015	110	013
03 Oct 2015	110	008
04 Oct 2015	110	013

Bulletin

A dozen of C- and two M-class flares were observed, mainly originating from NOAA active region (AR) 2422. The strongest flares were the M4.5 and M5.5 flares, peaking at 13:10 UT (October 1) and 00:13 UT (October 2). Though it is difficult to investigate the properties of NOAA 2422 when approaching the West limb, it still retains its delta spots. NOAA AR 2420 and 2427 remained beta regions. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed. Flaring activity at the M-level is expected. We retain a warning condition for a proton event in case of more strong activity originating from NOAA AR 2422.

The solar wind speed was low (with values in the range of 340 to 400 km/s). The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude remained around 10 nT, with a maximum of 13 nT, and while the Bz component went down to -11 nT. The phi angle was mainly negative (towards) till 23 UT when it turned to a positive (away) orientation. The geomagnetic conditions were quiet (K<3) to unsettled (K=3), with a few time slots of active conditions (K=4) between 15 and 24 UT. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected to continue, with a few time slots of active conditions.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 061, basierend auf 19 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 01 Oct 2015

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	120
AK Chambon La Forêt	027
AK Wingst	014
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	014
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	090 - Basierend auf 29 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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