Archiv von Sonntag, 4 Oktober 2015 anzeigen

Tägliches Bulletin zur solaren und geomagnetischen Aktivität des SIDC

Ausgestellt: 2015 Oct 04 1234 UTC

Vorhersage des SIDC

Sonneneruptionen

C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)

Geomagnetismus

Minor storm expected (A>=30 or K=5)

Sonnenprotonen

Warning condition (activity levels expected to increase, but no numeric forecast given)

	10cm Fluss	Ap
04 Oct 2015	090	016
05 Oct 2015	080	017
06 Oct 2015	080	007

Bulletin

During the past period, there were only three active regions on the solar disk. Four lower C-class flares and one M1.0 (peaking at 2:41 UT on October 4) flare were observed. The M1 flare originated from NOAA 2422, though being almost completely behind the West limb. NOAA 2427 now is a beta-gamma region, though it did not produce any significant flares the past 24 hours. Flaring activity at the C-level is expected. An extended equatorial positive polarity coronal hole has reached the central meridian and will be geo-effective within about 3 days.

Solar wind observations show a slight increase in speed (up to 500 km/s) and temperature from 15 UT October 4 on. The interplanetary magnetic field magnitude was maximally around 10 nT, with a mainly negative Bz component. Solar wind is expected to remain slightly disturbed and possibly indicate the arrival of a glancing blow related to the September 30 CME later today. Geomagnetic conditions were unsettled at the local level (Dourbes K=3) and active (NOAA Kp=4 at 3-6 UT) to even minor storm (NOAA Kp=5 at 9 UT) levels at the planetary level. Geomagnetic activity could be at to active or minor storm conditions during the next 24 hours.

Die heute international geschätzte Sonnenfleckenanzahl (ISN): 021, basierend auf 10 Stationen.

Solarindizes für den 03 Oct 2015

Wolf-Zahl Catania	///
10cm Solarflux	097
AK Chambon La Forêt	020
AK Wingst	008
Geschätzer Ap-Wert	009
Geschätzte internationale Sonnenfleckenzahl	046 - Basierend auf 12 Stationen

Zusammenfassung auffälliger Ereignisse

Zur Verfügung gestellt vom Solar Influences Data Analysis Center© - SIDC - Verarbeitet von SpaceWeatherLive

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